Now that your organisation has reacted to the crisis, what is the plan as you navigate through it and, at some point, emerge into the post-pandemic world? How do you ensure you don’t cut out capability now that you will need again soon? You need to ensure your organisation doesn’t make short-term decisions that destroy your long-term viability. Many articles here have provided a plethora of wonderful insights, advice and support on surviving the now. But what is critical is that we are simultaneously also considering the future.

Because, this type of “shock” is something that leading companies have been talking about for years – of course, not this precisely (unless you were using an early-80’s sci-fi novel as your business plan – thanks Dean Koontz!). We see many a business continuity plan to get through the disaster, and they do assume an eventual resumption to normal. QHR has long emphasised the importance of scenario planning in the face of self-created and market forces, and of course external shocks. This one in particular will see a change in how most organisations and government agencies operate for years to come, probably forever. The bell cannot be un-rung.

Now, as we are all facing this unprecedented crisis – changing weekly, daily, hourly or more – it is undoubtedly incredibly challenging both personally and professionally. What can we do to increase our ability to emerge effectively? What is it even going to look like when we do emerge? How do you integrate all of the different impacts across your entire workforce in the most holistic way, now and into the future? How do we balance our organisations survival and social responsibility to our people?

Leaders need structured conversations about the impact of the current pandemic shock and its impact on the longer-term operating model. Scenario planning using dynamic modelling ensures that the discussion includes tangible insights on how the activities of the organisation are changing and the resultant impact on the key delivery vehicle for change, our people. By bringing a sandbox view of multiple possible futures, we are helping leaders consider various trajectories and the resulting workforce requirements.

The impacts are just so different for each and every organisation. Some will face increased demand (health services, grocery store delivery, hand sanitiser manufacturers), some will face significant decreases in demand (airlines, tourism, restaurants) and some will face a mixture (banks decline branch activity, increase contact centre/remote activity). How do you understand changing organisation activities and volumes, and what they mean for each segment of your workforce? How do you bring it all together meaningfully?

And not only is the volume of work changing, but the way we are doing it is changing. Enter the largest social experiment of our time as working from home is now the mandate. We can already see, without any data needing to tell us, what work can be done remotely versus what requires some sort of customer/organisation proximity. We are being compelled to rethink both our operating models and the workforce mix, pushing boundaries to think outside the box in completely new ways. 

I guess we’re about to find out which meetings could have been emails after all…

While we are dealing with something with scale beyond what any of us have ever seen, we have had periods of drastic change in the past. We will again in the future. And one thing is for sure - “this too shall pass”. Going back (quite) a number of years where I once worked, we gave it a name - “constant shock syndrome” - September 11/War in Iraq, SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu and the GFC hit our industry significantly in what felt like quite rapid succession. We had to understand and model the impact of these shocks on the organisation and our people, so that we could have the most appropriate strategies and action plans in place to navigate through and emerge in the most effective way.

So how do we navigate these changes in the most planned, holistic and socially responsible way? Core to SWP is dynamic scenario planning, the key approach to navigating through uncertainty. Dynamic scenario functionality, such as what we have built into our software, eQ8, allows your organisation to model:

• Which of our core business drivers/activities are increasing or decreasing, and what is the resultant impact on our workforce?

• What step changes – starting a new facility, ceasing a part of our operations, transitioning to new technology delivery for our customers – will mean for our organisation?

• How we can create talent transition pathways (redeploying, re-skilling) to smooth out our internal curves of demand without blanket workforce reductions?

• Where our workforce risks are under different scenario trajectories so we can mitigate most effectively?

• How to navigate the new world of meeting our organisation demand using different “ways of working” such as WFH or tapping into gig economy, and which roles fit which response?

• When things inevitably change, how we can shape and shift in the most effective way to meet customer, client, and/or citizen needs?

We still have organisations that have customers, have employees and have a purpose. Even more than ever, we need to understand what that purpose is and what it will take to get there. We need to step up for our people, and give them as much support and certainty as we can. Scenario planning enables you to get better insights into the workforce impacts of external shocks. Because if we don’t handle it right now, the longer term effects can drag on for so much longer.

You need to plan ahead to be able to accelerate out of this crisis. You need to ensure your organisation doesn’t make short-term decisions that destroy your long-term viability. Because there will be another side that we will come into, but it will not be a return to the previous norms. Scenario planning is what can really align your organisation. You must come together now to successfully emerge and navigate the new normal! 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Alicia Roach is the Co-Founder and Director of QHR and a recognised thought leader in Strategic Workforce Planning and Analytics. QHR has now created the eQ8 Strategic Workforce Planning Platform, to help organisations accelerate their planning for Transformation and the Future of Work using the most sophisticated technology available. You can contact her to learn more at aliciaroach@qhr.com.au or by visiting https://www.qhr.com.au.