2025 is officially here, and to set the tone for the year ahead, host, David Green is joined by two of the most respected thought leaders in HR: Stacia Garr, cofounder and principal analyst at RedThread Research, and Dave Ulrich, the ‘father of modern HR’ and cofounder of The RBL Group. 

Drawing on David’s annual “12 Opportunities for HR in 2025” published on LinkedIn, this episode dives deeper into the critical pivots Chief People Officers need to make to amplify HR’s impact and deliver greater value to both the organisation and its workforce.  

From navigating uncertain geopolitics and economic shifts to unlocking the transformative potential of AI, David, Stacia and Dave share candid insights on the most pressing issues facing HR in 2025. 

Listen as they explore: 

• The key drivers and challenges shaping HR’s agenda in 2025 

• How to proactively craft growth strategies amidst ongoing uncertainty 

• Practical steps for creating stakeholder value through human capability 

• Evolving DEI efforts to remain impactful, even as organisational priorities shift 

• The game-changing power of agentic AI for HR, from enhancing business value to reimagining how HR works 

• Rethinking organisational design and talent strategies to stay ahead in a rapidly transforming world of work 

If you’re eager to learn how forward-thinking HR leaders are preparing for success in 2025—and want to hear proven tips for igniting meaningful change—this episode, sponsored by TalentNeuron, you won’t want to miss. 

From strategic workforce planning to skill gap analysis, TalentNeuron combines external talent intelligence and internal data into one seamless platform.  

Want to learn more? Visit talentneuron.com today.

[0:00:00] David Green: Hi, I'm David Green.  Happy New Year.  And as we look forward to 2025, welcome to a very special episode of the Digital HR Leaders podcast to kick off the year.  For those of you who have been listening to the podcast since we started in 2019, you'll know that every year, we like to kick things off with a discussion on the main opportunities and challenges for HR in the year ahead.  These episodes are traditionally based on the annual set of HR trends and opportunities I publish on LinkedIn.  This episode will primarily focus on the pivots Chief People Officers may need to make in order to improve both the impact of the HR function, and its ability to deliver more value to the organisation and its workforce.   

I am joined by two of the most talented and respected people in our field.  Stacia Garr is the Co-Founder and Principal Analyst of RedThread Research.  Stacia is also the Co-host of the Workplace Stories podcast.  Dave Ulrich is widely and deservedly acknowledged as the father of modern HR, and an absolute visionary in our field.  He is the Co-Founder of the RBL Group, and his weekly Human Capability Impact LinkedIn newsletter has over 200,000 subscribers.  In our conversation today, Stacia, Dave and I explore the key opportunities and challenges for HR in 2025, including how HR Leaders can create stakeholder value through human capability.  We'll also look at the shifts needed in organisational design and talent strategies, as the world of work continues to evolve.  And as a bonus, we will wrap up with some practical advice for HR Leaders to focus on in 2025, to drive meaningful value for their people and their organisations.  With that, let's get the conversation started.   

We've seen a lot of uncertainty in the decade to date, geopolitical challenges, economic shifts, rapid technological advancements.  I'm sure we'll talk about all three of those.  From your perspective, Stacia, starting with you, what are the most pressing factors that HR Leaders need to address as we enter 2025? 

[0:02:13] Stacia Garr: First, thank you for having me, David.  It's always a pleasure to get to be with you and Dave, excited to have this conversation.  As we think about what matters for HR, our focus is always on first what matters for the business, and then how does that then translate down into HR practice and the things we need to be focused on.  So, when we have thought about this, we've listed these as kind of mega trends, and many of them are the ones that you just mentioned, David, so things like increased geopolitical disruption, more growth, less people focus coming from the C-suite.  We characterise something as a 'power struggle continues', which I'm happy to talk about more, increasing population and skills mismatches, and then you mentioned technology, and we were a little bit more specific, talking about more AI use cases and fewer experiments, so really trying to figure out how we're going to derive value there.   

But what does that mean then for HR?  That means things like, with the geopolitical disruption, we're looking at potential employee unrest and nervousness, particularly in parts of the world where we might be needing to shift what's happening with our talent given changing regulations or expectations, particularly coming out of the incoming US administration.  We might be shifting our employee locations or roles, we're certainly going to continue to see uncertainty in policy and conflicts and cybersecurity, which impacts things like our HR technology.  So, those are some things in that first bucket.   

If I think about some of the others, which are maybe a little bit even more specific to HR, around things like more growth, less people focus, there was a survey that was done by Gartner of CEOs, and 56% of them said that they are focused on growth this year, then coming into 2025.  And the workforce, which has typically been roughly third in order of priority, has slipped to number five.  And so, when you match that with what we know is happening, which is high levels of burnout, and disengagement and stress, particularly as we've seen flattening organisational hierarchies over the last few years, and a focus on efficiency, then it becomes like, what do we do to support the workforce?  And so, that's things like making sure that we are supporting managers and not just giving them more training, that's a really important point, but how do we actually think about taking some of the work off of their plate and giving them the resources that they need, and helping give them the data.  And this gets to so much of what we talk about, David, around how do we make better decisions?  How do we enable more people in the organisation to make decisions and then go forth? 

So, the final point I'd make here, I'm not going to go through all of these, but this focus on how do we support the people, how do we use data to do that, and a big part of that is then using strategic workforce planning to understand what the possibilities are, and then making our investments appropriately.   

[0:05:08] David Green: And Stacia, before I go to Dave, I'd love to hear a little bit more about the power struggle that you alluded to.   

[0:05:14] Stacia Garr: Yeah, so this is a trend that we identified it last year, and this year we call it the 'power struggle continues'.  And in many ways, what this is reflective of is some of the culture wars that have come into organisations, and we see this primarily in three areas.  One is DEIB, or whatever you want to call it this year, because that seems to be one of the big changes, and this being about some folks in the organisation having a perspective that DEIB can be divisive or harmful, and then really the majority of folks who actually, say, we see that it improves business outcomes, we see that it improves organisational inclusion, etc, so DEIB being one.   

The second being the changes in return to office or the approaches to return to office.  And so, we know that so many senior executives are saying, "You have to get back in the office", but almost all the data that I've looked at has said, well actually, what we should be focusing on is connection and collaboration, not just some arbitrary return to the office.  And so, for many employees, it's felt like a tension that exists between the two.  There's some really interesting research that just came out from Nick Bloom at Stanford that shows that when you compare 2022 to now, that the percentage of people who say they will quit has gone up if they're forced to return to the office.  And there is a bunch of research about why that might be the case.  There's some selection bias, because maybe all the people who are more open to it have already gone back to the office, etc.  But I think it kind of epitomises or it is a good example of that power struggle.   

Then, the final point is around labour unions.  So, we've seen more work stoppages in the last couple of years than we had seen.  In the years before, we've seen the percentage of people joining labour unions going up.  Of course, it's still very small when we compare it to the '70s and '80s, but we are seeing more energy here, not just in blue collar work, but also at Microsoft, for instance, in some of these larger organisations, white collar work. 

[0:07:26] David Green: Stacia, thank you.  Dave, really, get your reaction to what you've heard from Stacia, but also your thoughts.   

[0:07:34] Dave Ulrich: First of all, thank you for letting me join you and Stacia, just a delight.  The only thing I might add is, in a world of uncertainty, we often chase the uncertainty.  We do scenario planning, we do alternatives.  I'd love to suggest that in a world of uncertainty, we focus on certainty.  I think chasing the uncertainty and the unknown is hard to know.  Who's going to win the election?  What's going to happen to the government?  What's going to happen to technology?  We don't know in 2025 where technology will be.  And so, our encouragement is, refocus on certainty.  What are the core values?  What are the things we believe in?  A friend of mine has a 16-year-old son who is a great young man, but my friend doesn't know where he's going to go to college, who he's going to marry, what he's going to study, where he's going to live.  And so, the advice to my friend is, love your son, that's what I'm certain about.  And I think the same is true in organisations. 

[0:08:28] David Green: Well, as a father of a 16-year-old, I would agree with that, Dave. 

[0:08:32] Dave Ulrich: Well, I don't know where that friend came from! 

[0:08:36] Stacia Garr: I was going to say, just to add on that, we recently did some research on L&D strategy, and one of the things that was most surprising coming out of that research, for us anyway, was the core insight that folks need to focus on both agility, so respond to what the business needs, which is what we hear everywhere, right?  Do that, align to the business, align to the business; but to Dave's point, a big component around stability, how do we figure out what we need to do to be stable?  Because if we're changing our strategy every year to align to the business, we're never going to get anything done, right?  And so, that focus on balancing stability and agility at the same time was one of our core insights.  And that seems so obvious when you say it, right?  But it just isn't always the thing that we're hearing out there. 

[0:09:27] Dave Ulrich: A quick tag on that.  In our research and others who've done better research than us even, which is not hard, what we find is the ability to navigate paradox is the key skill.  And I think in this field, we always say 'from two'; I'm going from A to B.  I would argue that's a mistake.  I'm doing A and B; I'm doing stability and agility; I'm doing top-down and bottom-up; I'm doing operational HR and strategic HR.  And I think that navigating, not managing paradox, you don't do away with it, you navigate it, you live in that tension.  So, I really appreciate Stacia raising that it's stability and agility, and how do you navigate that inherent tension?   

[0:10:07] David Green: How can HR Leaders navigate?  What will be your guidance to HR Leaders on navigating paradox and maybe being proactive rather than reactive, as Stacia said, not flipping the strategy all the time, especially when, again to Stacia's point, when CEOs are focused on growth at the moment?   

[0:10:28] Dave Ulrich: So, I love that question.  And I'm going to be embarrassed that this insight didn't hit me until recently.  We love to say, "HR should connect to the business", and we mean financials.  Here's the insight.  Financials are, by definition, a lag indicator.  We report monthly, quarterly, annually how we did.  If HR is going to be proactive, we've got to get to the lead indicators.  But what's the lead indicator?  The lead indicator of revenue is customer.  If a customer doesn't have a good experience, they're not going to buy your product.  And so, the work we've been doing is really aggressive on saying HR is not about HR.  It's about creating value for the stakeholders who will then create the business value.  And so, our view is HR should be outside connected. 

The other aha this year for me in 2025, I don't know what the ahas will be, it's uncertain, but the aha this year is when we talk about the word 'Human' in 'Human Resources', who is that?  We often define that as an employee, no disagreement.  But guess what?  Customers are human.  And they're the lead indicators of financial results.  Investors are human.  They're the lead indicators of confidence in market value.  Citizens are human, they're the lead indicators of citizenship.  So, our view is that HR should get increasingly connected to the stakeholders outside the company.  How do you do that?  I love simplicity in the world, certainty and simplicity.   

So, I hear people in HR talking about learning and development, where we work, how we work, DEI programmes.  You have ten great tips.  Behind each of those I put two words, "So that".  If we do learning and development so that a customer, a human being, will buy more product, that delivers business results.  We will do DEI so that we have a reputation and the customer or the investor or the citizen will have a better experience with us.  That, for us, is kind of where HR should go.  And the final caveat on that, we've been advising HR people, when you go into a business meeting with your executives or your boards, we love to present our programmes.  Here's our programme for where people work; here's our programme for L&D; here's our programme for succession or culture.  I'd say don't go there, don't start there.  The first thing we should present in that meeting is who are our customers, who are our investors, who are citizens we serve, and the communities where we live and work?   

Our job in HR today is to do culture, leadership, succession planning, etc, all of those HR initiatives so that those folks will have a better experience.  And that then is the lead indicator of business results.  That's where we hope we focus.   

[0:13:09] David Green: What sort of tips would you give for people to actually be able to do that?  Because I suspect if we ask the questions to many HR professionals who are listening to this, and if only they could answer, and we asked them the last time they spoke to a customer of their company, I suspect it's going to be several months or maybe even longer.  So, what would be your advice? 

[0:14:18] Dave Ulrich: Well, my advice would be to change that.  Are we in HR spending time with customers; and if not directly with customers, with marketing and sales who spend time with them?  And we're not there yet.  This is where I still feel there's value to the next step in the field.  I spoke recently to the Head of HR of a big company, a large global company, won't name the Head of HR of the company, "What are you sharing with investors?"  And the comment was, "Well, I don't meet with them.  That's investor relations".  And my first reaction was, "Sell short, because you should be meeting with them".  Now, our research shows that 25% to 30% investors' decision-making is tied to organisation and people, 35% to 40% profitability, 30% to 35%, strategic clarity and confidence.  But we shouldn't own the investor call, but we should be part of that dialogue.   

So, if we're doing training, let's invite the investor to co-create the training, let's invite the best investor to come.  I was in a company and their rating went from an A to a B, or whatever rating system you have anywhere in the world, and their cost of capital if they borrow money went higher, they had to pay a premium.  They said, "What do we do?"  And I said, "Invite those folks in.  There's a person who made that decision.  Invite them into your training programme.  Have them tell you why".  Another company, they're all up frustrated, "Oh man, we're losing customer share".  "Invite them in".   

Five-day programme, Wednesday afternoon, we have a panel of three customers, all of whom have chosen to quit doing business with us.  Whoa, you want to have a really live case study?  And we're not here just to get you back, we'd love to, but we're here to find out why.  That's not a warm, friendly discussion because they're saying, "You didn't do this, this, and this", and it's people in the room who didn't do it.  And so, we're going to someone else.  That's the kind of very simple idea of, we call it outside-in, call it whatever you want, but getting connected to the stakeholders who are human beings.  An investor lowered your rating.  Let's bring them in.  I've worked with a couple of boards of directors, they get all upset, "Our rating just went down".  "Why don't we have them come in and talk?" and pretty candid discussions. 

[0:16:32] David Green: Stacia, I'd love to hear your thoughts on that as well.  And also, based on your research, one of the first things that you said is that when you're looking at what the opportunities are for HR, you're very much tying it to what matters for the business.  So, you're saying very similar things here, I think.   

[0:16:49] Stacia Garr: Yeah, and I think that's what's powerful about what Dave just shared, is that it is these leading indicators are tied to the businesses; he said, its customers.  I think in HR, we so often have a tendency to measure activity and not impact, and to then say, "Well, that's a leading indicator to the impact".  But then, we're (1) never measuring the impact; and (2) we don't always necessarily know what the impact is.  And so, by focusing on customers and what's happening with customers as a leading indicator, and then using that to derive some of the things that we should be doing, I think that's a more true North Star than some of the things that we see organisations measure, David, that we've talked about ad nauseum.  And so, I think that's the thing. 

I know though that that can seem scary, right?  Like, if I'm listening to Dave, I'm thinking to myself, if I'm that HR leader in the room where the customer's coming in and saying, "These are all the things wrong", part of my head is going, "Oh, who do I tell?  What do I do with this information?"  And I think here is where we get back to something that we've been talking about for a while, which is making sure that we truly understand the business strategy, and we do have those connections, and we are acting as a business leader first, just one who happens to specialise within HR.  And so, we think that some of that comes back to that broader mindset shift around who am I as an HR leader, and what's my role in the organisation, in order to then do, wait, I think, let me use the right words, 'so that' I can impact customer outcomes. 

[0:18:30] David Green: And I guess, Dave, before I come to you, maybe sometimes as HR Leaders when we're dealing with stakeholders, we need to be better at the language and maybe be focusing on the, this matters, this has a positive impact on our business, by investing in these programmes because it's not just the right thing to do, actually it makes sense for business.  And I'd love to hear your thoughts on that, Dave, with some of the companies that you're working with. 

[0:18:57] Dave Ulrich: Yeah, I'm going to go back to where I was before.  First of all, I don't know very many people who are opposed to the principles of DEI.  I mean, if they are, that's a problem and needs to get worked with that's deeper than we're going to ever solve.  That's a psychological, historical artifact.  Where I would go is, if I'm talking about DEI or learning or succession planning or career development or where people work, that's not where I'd start.  I'd start by saying, and for me I'm going to use a term a little different than Stacia to try to be explicit, business outcome for me starts with stakeholders, because the outcome is not financial.  I mean, I think that's where most people, when you say, "Business outcome, what's our EBITDA, what's our cash flow, what's our cost of capital?" I love to go to stakeholders.  And so, I'd say to the business team, we want a customer who's going to -- I was talking to an airline today and they said, "We have three airlines fly this route.  How will we get a customer to choose our airline over somebody else?  And we'll do all of the --" I'm sure, Dave, you're a frequent flyer in 50 airlines and Stacia's probably a frequent flyer and I'm a frequent flyer.  But it's the experience you have with employees.  Is the cabin crew gracious?  Is the check-in patter, when I have a problem, can I get quick access and get it solved?   

Our job in HR is to say, "How do we get customers and investors and citizens to have a better experience with our company?"  That then leads to the financial outcomes.  And then, subsequent to that is DEI where we focus to make that happen. 

[0:20:27] David Green: Do we need slightly more of a 'less is more' approach in HR?  Or do we try and do too much sometimes for the sake of it, because we've always done it? 

[0:20:38] Dave Ulrich: I'm going to say a resounding yes.  Let me add to that.  I think one of the challenges in HR…  I'm at this great conference in Singapore with the World Federation of HR, a great conference, and they've got 29 or 39 sessions.  The question I've got in my head is, "Where do I prioritise?  Where do I focus?"  And one of the dilemmas is some of the AI firms love to create new products, because they want more possibilities so they sell more products.  I think as HR people, we should have a discipline of prioritisation.  Which of those things should work most?  And the discipline, again, I'm getting way off stream here perhaps, is not just asking business leaders, "What do you think we should do?  What do you think we should do?"  I think we need data.  Which of those 20 initiatives will drive my customer to buy a product, my investor to invest in me?  And if we can get analytics data that is connecting our priorities and all these great options -- I love the power options, as Stacia mentioned, the DEI, the where do we work, and we mentioned learning and development, we mentioned succession, we mentioned leadership development, cultural change; which of all those initiatives will cause a customer to buy more product?  To me, that's the analytics agenda that I think we're trying to get our arms around. 

[0:21:56] David Green: I'd love to see how you both foresee AI, whether that's generative AI, agentic AI, or all the other flavours of AI that are coming out at the moment, having an impact on HR; but most importantly, and Stacia, I'll start with you, how can HR use AI to (1) enhance its business value; and (2) maybe transform how we do HR? 

[0:23:10] Stacia Garr: Great question. 

[0:23:11] David Green: Probably a whole podcast episode on its own, so we'll probably ask you to be quite brief on it!   

[0:23:17] Dave Ulrich: Or we could just ask ChatGPT to do the podcast!   

[0:23:21] Stacia Garr: Yeah, that's true, or NotebookLM.  I don't know if y'all have seen that podcast feature they added on there.   

[0:23:26] David Green: Oh yeah it's impressive, isn't it? 

[0:23:28] Stacia Garr: Yeah.  To your point, David, a few things.  First, we need to make sure that we understand AI.  And I know that sounds a little bit -- that could sound condescending, and I in no way mean it to be, because it is changing so quickly, it is an ongoing journey.  I'm actually taking an AI course starting in January from UC Berkeley, because I'm trying to stay on top of it.  But I think understanding what it is and what it isn't is incredibly important, because to your point, David, there's so much coming at HR practitioners in terms of AI this, AI that, every vendor is now an AI vendor, right, which actually isn't true, given that research.  But I think understanding, starting with a base of understanding.  Second is, in the short term, understanding what is it that we can automate and make more efficient, both for within the HR function, but then also for the folks who are customers within the business that we're working with.  And then third, understanding the direction that we're going, because agentic AI, and we can get into what agents are if folks don't know, but this ability for AI to do things on our behalf, and then to work with different tools within the organisation, to do those things, is a fundamentally different type of technology or tool than we've had in many ways.  And that will be transformative. 

[0:25:01] David Green: And Dave, before I turn to you, I think you highlighted one really important, well, lots of important points, but one really important point for everyone listening to this, is the need for continuous learning, for curiosity.  We actually, all of us, and I'm doing it because I'm learning every day about AI as well, we actually need to invest time in learning about it ourselves.  And then I think the second point, again, for anyone listening who wants to find out more about agentic AI and its potential impact on HR, I definitely recommend subscribing to Jason Averbook's Now of Work Substack.  It's very good, the articles are quite concise and short, and Jason's very good at putting it into a language that we can all understand.  Dave, I'd love to hear your thoughts about AI. 

[0:25:44] Dave Ulrich: First of all, let me just amen on the learning.  I think that learning means we step out of our comfort zone, and we try.  And it's one of the things, Stacia, I love about RedThread.  I mean, you're continually learning.  And it's not that we're wrong.  I'm also learning about AI.  I don't think I'm the earliest adopter, but I'm trying to be a thoughtful adopter.  My bias is simplicity.  I mean, my PhD is in taxonomy.  It's about how do you simplify complex things into simple messages.  So, as I've wandered around that AI space, I've said, what's the simplest message that has impact?  And I've got it in a few words, "What does AI do?"  It provides information.  It's an incredible information source that improves decision-making to create stakeholder value.  And then I go back and say, "So, what does AI information do?"  And I love, as I said before, I'm not 'from, to', but 'and, also'.  I see four waves of AI and we're moving, we're stuck in the first and second wave right now.   

The first wave of AI for me is the information it provides, it's like a research assistant.  It assists us.  That's the agents, that's the information.  We get assistance, we can do performance management faster, we can do succession faster.  It's an incredible efficiency assistant, and there's hundreds of apps on how AI does things as an assistant.  Second, it provides us information.  There's knowledge warehouses, data banks.  We can go learn, and I don't want to start mentioning names because I'll leave people out and they always get mad, but I can go be an agent of any person you want, I can go find their information.  Assist, inform.  I think the third stage of AI that's not there yet is guide.  And we talked before about, of all the HR things I could do, can AI give me guidance?  Can it tell me the information that will help me know where to prioritise to get more value.   

The final stage of AI that I'm trying to get to, and I'm clearly not there, and I'm not sure how to get there, will it have impact?  Will it deliver stakeholder value?  That's my, I was going to say broken record, but I've dated myself with the metaphor.  But that's my repeat phrase, is in a do-loop, I guess.  If it doesn't create stakeholder value, the information's not very helpful.  And so, for me, AI provides information to make better decisions, to build stakeholder value.  It's an assistant, that's where I see every new app.  And I love your comment, Stacia.  Somebody asked a professor friend of mine, who's in technology, "I've got an app that's going to change the world, what do I do?"  And the professor's comment to the student was, "Learn how to code".  I mean, we do have to know the basics.  That's the assistant.  Inform, source data, source information, which is amazing.  The third level is guide, and the fourth level is impact.  That's where I hope we see AI moving.   

[0:28:49] David Green: Stacia, I'll maybe let you respond to that, and then I'm very interested to talk about how we set up HR because having Dave on this call, on this podcast episode, we must talk about the HR operating model a little bit as well.  So, Stacia, maybe your thoughts on what you've just heard from Dave there first. 

[0:29:09] Stacia Garr: From what you said, Dave, I think that is true, but I think it's going to end up being more, right?  I think that's what we see right now, but I don't know that it's just guide, because so much of it is about efficiency.  So, as an example, so we are playing with this.  So, you mentioned Dave, like you said, 20% to 25% of your time aside to do this.  In our team, in our weekly all-company meeting, we have a spot that is just about AI experimentation.  And everyone on the team has to bring every week an example of how they've experimented with AI that week and share it.  And so, through that, we've seen a fair amount of experimentation and a lot of conversations about what doesn't work, right?  But there have been some things that have been dramatically efficiency gains.  So, we write a lot.  I, like David, travel to a lot of conferences and I get a lot of material.  And we write these road reports.   

So, I've taken this approach of taking the information that I'm given, putting it into a custom GPT, and having it summarise transcripts of things I've heard, slides, etc, and giving me an outline.  I then write it most of the time, or at least I heavily edit it.  But this has taken literally an eight-hour process down to a two-and-a-half-hour process, right?  And so, there are so many efficiency things and we don't know where and what all of those are right now.  And then, when you think about what's going to happen with agents, and you put that across the scale of activities that we're doing, I just think that there is a huge efficiency play.  And, Dave, you mentioned, "Learn to code".  I don't know if we need to code anymore, for many people. 

[0:31:12] Dave Ulrich: By the way, I think you've just described my first wave.  Assistant is efficiency.  

[0:31:17] Stacia Garr: Okay. 

[0:31:17] Dave Ulrich: Instead of hiring ten RAs, we use ChatGPT to get the work done.  Level 2 is inform.  That's the agent.  I can find out what somebody wants about performance-management, team-building, culture.  I can go get that information in an efficient way.  Those are incredible benefits of AI.  And one of the takeaways that I had in AI, we have a daughter who is a Professor of sociology.  And she called me, this was a year-and-a-half ago, and she said, "Dad, my job's over.  Nobody's going to come to class and learn sociology, and nobody's going to ever write a paper again.  They're going to do it through AI".  That was when I got on AI and started to experiment.  And I'm always a little slow sometimes with this.  I called her back and I said, "My job's over".  Because I put in ChatGPT, and it was an early version, "What's the future of HR?"  200 words, boom, there it is.  And so, I called and I said, "We're both out of work.  There's no more".   

Then it hit me, and this is where it does help to know the basics of AI.  AI doesn't create new data, it summarises existing data.  So, I read that 200-word essay and I said, "This is a sentence from", and again, I don't want to name people, I'll miss some person X, "this is a sentence from person Y".  And it integrated those.  As you just said, I went to a conference, I got data.  It integrated that in a brilliant way.  But then, you put your RedThread genius on top of that and create something that's not been done.  That's where I get AI-excited.  So, our daughter said, "You're going to turn in two papers on any topic, one AI-written and two, you got to write one yourself.  And if you can't do the second, you're going to fail because if you can't do something in addition, that's the future". 

I just love that metaphor.  If I want to know the skills of a chemist in whatever industry, I can go to AI and get the skills of a chemist that's been done around the world.  But that's not what my chemist needs to do given my customer goals, given my investor, given my goals, how I want to serve my customer.  I've got to go build on that and create new.  So, I love AI's efficiency.  I'm just so accepting of what you've got.  I'm scared, because I'm going to be vulnerable.  If I start relying on AI to write my weekly post, I'll get lazy, and I don't want to do it.  I've used AI to say, "Gee, I don't understand this concept".  And again, people would say, "You're old, you just don't get it, AI is going to replace you".  No, AI is going to summarise what's been done, it's not going to create what's next. 

[0:33:49] Stacia Garr: Yeah, sorry, David, I know you want to get to operating model, but I'm just going to plus-one on what Dave just said, because I have had the same thing, right?  I cannot rely on it to actually create anything new or insight, like truly insightful.  You know what we've actually started doing for the team?  Because I tell them, "As a starting point, go see what ChatGPT says.  And if you say any of that, I'm throwing your paper out", cause that's what's known! 

[0:34:18] Dave Ulrich: That's the same thing our daughter was doing!  Turn in the ChatGPT paper, and then you've got to write another one.   

[0:34:25] Stacia Garr: Yeah, exactly. 

[0:34:27] Dave Ulrich: Anyway, so, I know we'll talk about operating.  David, we haven't let you talk enough because frankly, you are the world's leading curator, and this will probably show up in the tape, you are the world's leading curator in the HR space, one of them, and it would be fun to see what you're seeing in this space as well.  So, I'm sorry, we needed to get you more involved in those questions as well. 

[0:34:48] David Green: No, no, no, it's good because the listeners hear enough from me each week, so it's good to hear different voices.  The one thing I will say, we recently published some research at Insight222, our People Analytics Trends, and we wanted to understand what the impact of AI has been.  We had a hypothesis that generative AI had acted as a bit of a game-changer.  And so, we asked the question, 348 companies responded, "How long has the AI journey in HR been at your organisation?"  And 62% came back and said they were in the first year.  So, kind of, well, it doesn't prove the hypothesis, but it suggests that it might be true.  So, I think it has acted as a bit of a game-changer a little bit.  And I think we'll be hearing more.  If we were to do this call in a year, two years' time, we might have some really good concrete examples of how it is benefiting HR as a function, but more importantly, how it's actually having an impact on the organisation and its stakeholders as well.   

We've got three topics to cover and I'm conscious of time.  Now, this episode is the one that our listeners particularly seem to listen to each year, and I do want to talk a little bit about operating model of HR.  We don't want to go into a huge amount of detail, but there are a number of -- Marc Effron published a great piece around all the different operating models that are out there, normally from big consultant companies as well, and obviously it all comes back really, Dave, to what you and your colleagues did in the 1990s.  And I always say, when people say, "Oh, we've implemented the Ulrich model and it doesn't really work anymore", you didn't tell people to stand still for 30 years.  So, I'd love to hear your thoughts on the HR operating model now, and how you see it -- 

[0:36:34] Dave Ulrich: I'm going to be real -- I can be quick on this one.  It's old wine in new bottles.  We went through nine consulting firms who have, "A new HR operating model", and they put new words on it.  The HR operating model is really the basics.  We have specialists who have deep knowledge.  We often have generalists who have application of that knowledge to a function, to a geography, to a business unit.  They've got to work together.  Call it whatever you want, they've got to work together with agility, but it's basically, that's the governance of a function.  You've got great experts in talent compensation, OD, analytics, and other experts.  They've got to work with the generalist and they've got to work together, whatever language you put on it, and that's part A.   

Part B, I'm going back to the prioritisation.  We identified, through those ten consulting firms, we steal their ideas, ten dimensions of a good HR department.  Do we have a focus?  Do we serve customers?  Do we have analytics?  Do we have good people?  Do we have blah, blah, blah, ten dimensions.  We went to the marketplace.  Which of those ten dimensions, and HR operating model was number 4, have the most impact on stakeholder value?  The operating model wasn't in the top 5.  The thing that matters most to creating value for a customer, for an investor, for a citizen, for an executive, is how well do we work with each other? 

My wife and I have never done -- we've been married a long time, her picture, if you have video, well, it's on my wall over there, we don't see it very well.  She added that picture to my list.  We've never done RACI in 50 years.  Think about it if you're in a relationship, when did you do role clarity?  We have role clarity, but we don't do RACI.  We have a great relationship.  The other thing that mattered is, do we have clear value added to those we serve?  The operating model is a set of roles, it's got to be done, it's got to be done well, but it's a necessary, not sufficient part of HR.   

[0:38:34] David Green: Before we get to the question of the series, maybe for each of you, and Stacia, I'll start with you, maybe one or two practical actions that HR Leaders should prioritise in 2025.  And I get that the context will be different depending on the organisation they're in and the role they're in as well, but maybe generally speaking, where they can create value for their organisations, for their talent, to use Dave's words, and other stakeholders? 

[0:38:59] Stacia Garr: We both love people analytics, David, and I think the reason for that is that data can give us just incredible insights, and almost an ability to see in the future.  And I honour what Dave said about, "Don't focus on the change or the things that you don't know that's going to happen".  But I think using the data to understand where we are today and through some scenarios, generally where we might need to go, and therefore place some better bets, that is one of, I think, the most important things.  And we are hearing, whether it be through workforce planning or strategic planning or the like, we are hearing far more about those activities than we have in years past.  And I think that's a reaction to the amount of ambiguity and change that's happening right now, and people's desire to get some sense of control over that.  And I think that that's a rational response.  And so, if organisations and leaders are not focused on that right now, I think that would be my number one recommendation, is to focus there.   

I think then secondarily, again tying back a bit to what Dave was saying, is having another look at culture and looking at what's happening with our people, and start off with a bit about the stress and the disengagement.  There's some who are predicting another mass resignation in 2025.  I don't know if that'll be the case or not.  Obviously, it depends on your organisation.  But refocusing on culture because the company you were in, let's say 2022 coming out of the pandemic, is a very different company than you are right now.  And there's been this massive press on efficiency in the last few years.  And I think it's an appropriate time to lift up and say, "Who are we right now in 2025?  And who are we trying to be?  And what do we need to do to become that organisation so that we can drive those customer outcomes that we need to?" 

[0:40:57] David Green: Great.  David, is there anything you'd add to that?  I guess one of the first things you'd say is, "Go and speak with your customers and your investors"! 

[0:41:04] Dave Ulrich: And if you don't speak with them, at least, as you sit in a meeting and you're talking about HR issues that are incredibly important and diligent, begin to imagine, what if a customer was here?  What if an investor was here?  What if?  And that mindset I think begins to filter, and I love data.  I mean, my PhD is in taxonomy.  I mean, nobody has a clue what that is, and nobody cares, but it's the science of simplicity.  And I think if we bring that analytics discipline with the right question about, what's going to add the most value to those I care about?  And so, if I were talking to HR people, and I do periodically, I tell them, "Go off by yourself somewhere.  In the Bay Area, go walk on the beach; in London, go to Hyde Park; go somewhere by yourself and begin to think, who am I trying to serve today, at a personal level, at an institutional level; and what can I do that will help them meet their goals better?" 

Good leadership is not what you know.  I'm guilty of that.  I love to do sessions and tell people everything I know.  Good leadership and good teaching is not what you do or what you know, it's how others benefit.  And so, my encouragement to HR folks is, go spend some time, keep an eye on who benefits, who's going to succeed because of what I'll do tomorrow.  To me, that's important.  And anyway, I'll stop with that, I could go a long time on that, I've gone around and around.  Values defined by the receiver, not the giver.  And if I have a 16-year-old son, what would be most meaningful to him?  That's my job.  And I think in HR, what would help our employees?  No question, we care about our people with incredible passion.  We want them to have all those experiences to fulfil their potential.  We care about our executives, we care about our boards, our customers, our investors.  Pause and reflect.  Who do I care about and how can I serve them?   

[0:43:05] David Green: And if it's my 16-year-old, probably more time on his Xbox is what he would probably want.  And I'm just glad, Dave, that your PhD is in taxonomy and not taxidermy.  But that's my bad joke. 

[0:43:17] Dave Ulrich: I tried out taxidermy and it didn't go well when I brought the animals home.  No, I didn't try out taxidermy at all! 

[0:43:25] David Green: Oh, dear!  Right, I think that helps us get to the question of the series.  So, this is the last question today.  So, this is the question we're asking everyone on this series of the podcast.  Dave, I'll start with you.  How do you leverage people analytics, people data to inform strategic workforce planning initiatives? 

[0:43:43] Dave Ulrich: Well, first of all, I think it's more than workforce planning.  I think workforce planning is talent, I think organisational capability of the systems and leadership.  I think we use analytics to do all three.  Analytics lets me prioritise, where should I focus, of all those initiatives going on?  Your monthly columns, and I'm going to do a plug for you, and I've done this on some of your columns, have so many good ideas.  Our field is abundant with information.  And Stacia, I don't know how you keep up with the research.  I use Dave as a barometer, and some others that are very good.  But the question I've got is, which of those should I and my company focus on?  And you said it brilliantly, Stacia.  It varies, it's personalised.  Each company's going to have a different item on that 300-item menu that I'm going to take David to dinner and we'll see what you order.  And you and I will not order the same thing.   

I love to look around a room.  I'll give you the final joke.  Go to a room of a common group by age, by title, by company, etc.  Who's wearing the same shoes?  No one, no one.  Personalise.  And so, we have all this HR work.  How do we use analytics to prioritise what works for me?  I keep waiting for somebody to wear the same pair of shoes I'm wearing, because I'll go, "Wow, that's a cool person, I must be dressed well", and I've never found somebody, which is kind of sad.  Anyway, that's where I'd go.  I love analytics and I appreciate the work that each of you do in bringing evidence to support.   

Final anecdote, we've just done a huge study with 28,000 people, and everybody does big studies, and one of the people we were partnering with said, "I see the data, but let me tell you what I think".  And it was a phone call, wasn't Zoom, good thing.  And I interrupted and I said, "Let me be clear.  At this point, I don't care what you think.  We've got data from 27,999 other people.  Let's look at what you think, but let's look at their data".  I love analytics because it gives me, and Stacia, you said it, patterns, etc. 

[0:45:48] David Green: Stacia, how can people analytics inform strategic workforce planning? 

[0:45:52] Stacia Garr: We can't do strategic workforce planning right without great people data.  And I think the thing that's interesting from my perspective is how so much of the talent intelligence work that we've seen has really kind of come together with strategic workforce planning.  In some ways, talent intelligence for a while was more data outside the organisation, but obviously that data is a critical input into what we're doing with strategic workforce planning.  And so, I think that making sure that you're bringing that together, the supply together with the demand within the organisation, what types of roles we see, what we think we're going to need, what skills we think we're going to need, etc.   

One thing I would encourage folks to start to think about though, is as we're talking about all of this AI stuff, the automation, the agents, etc, the way that we've been looking at jobs in strategic workforce planning is likely to change in the next couple of years as we rethink job design, then eventually org design, the tasks that need to get done.  And so, I would encourage folks to start thinking creatively about what other data might we want to use and how early in the process might we want to be thinking about job and role redesign, so that we can start to break apart roles in ways that are meaningful and important to create better jobs for folks that achieve outcomes, and then can automate the things that are a bit drudgery and less interesting.  So, that would be kind of my encouragement for the future. 

[0:47:27] Dave Ulrich: David, what is your hope for next year? 

[0:47:29] David Green: I mean, I mean, I was just trying to write down some of the key themes that we've discussed in the last hour, as HR professionals, and we're in that field, even if we're not doing the work ourselves.  We've got to be more outside-in than inside-out, we've really got to focus and prioritise on what's important to our organisation, what's important to the employees within our organisation and really, really connect to that.  We need to use data to help us understand what that is, and we need to use data to understand what the impact of that is as well.  I would love if next year, if we're having this conversation, that all three of us would actually say, "Actually, we've made some steps forward this year as a field", whatever those steps are.  And let's be realistic, they're not going to be massive in 12 months because there's a lot happening.  But if we can feel that we've made a step forward as a field in a year's time, I think that would be that would be really good.   

So, thank you both and now really, how can listeners stay in touch with each of you and find out more about your work.  So, Stacia, I'll come to you and then, Dave, I'll give you the last word. 

[0:48:35] Stacia Garr: Yeah, so folks can follow me on LinkedIn, Stacia Sherman Garr, or they can check us out with RedThread Research, redthreadresearch.com, and check out our membership. 

[0:48:45] David Green: And also check out your podcast, Workplace Stories.  They're very good. 

[0:48:47] Stacia Garr: Yes, our podcast, and thank you!  Yes, Workplace Stories by RedThread Research in all the places you get your podcast.   

[0:48:54] David Green: And Dave? 

[0:48:55] Dave Ulrich: I use LinkedIn, I use that as my focus group.  I post every Tuesday a new column, which sounds easy, but it's really hard to do a new column 52 times a year.  And then I spend a couple hours a day on comments.  I used to find, when I'd go give a talk somewhere, the real value is not the talk, that's looking back.  The real value was the lunch and the dinner and the social times where you get sense.  I lose that when we're not traveling as much.  LinkedIn provides that.  When I post, we get quick a few views, and I love the comments.  That's where I learn. 

[0:49:28] David Green: And if any of you don't follow Dave's newsletter on LinkedIn, I really recommend that you do.  I think you've got over 200,000 subscribers on it now, which is amazing and it is testament to the work that you're doing.  And Stacia, also the work that you and the team are doing at RedThread as well.  So, thank you very much.  We will post some links in the show notes, to Dave's work that the RBL group did around the HR operating model, to Workplace Stories, Stacia's and Dani Johnson's podcast, the RedThread Research Podcast, and a few other links as well.  So, thank you very much and speak to you both soon. 

[0:50:05] Stacia Garr: Thank you. 

[0:50:06] Dave Ulrich: Thank you.